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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

09:55 → 10:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:55 → 10:00 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0955

Settled

Nov 15, 10:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,362.15
Index at 09:55:00

Final index

$65,309.64

Settlement price

$65,309.64
Index at 10:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,238.2365,278.0465,317.8509:5509:5609:5709:5810:00PTB 65,362.15

Settlement $65,309.64

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN53.3%Medium
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.0%
151 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 09:55:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.6%
UP 43.4%56.6% DOWN
Medium54.3%151 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN54.5%
UP 45.5%54.5% DOWN
Medium53.0%151 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Medium50.3%151 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.7%
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Medium51.0%151 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.8%
UP 52.8%47.2% DOWN
Low54.3%151 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP54.3%
UP 54.3%45.7% DOWN
Medium47.7%151 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.3%151 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low50.3%151 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low41.7%151 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:55:00 UTC

09:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,362.15ok
  • Coinbase−1.9 bps65,349.59ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.5 bps65,365.14ok
Median of 3 sources$65,362.15

Settlement · 10:00:00 UTC

10:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.2 bps65,308.04ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,309.64ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.1 bps65,310.52ok
Median of 3 sources$65,309.64

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1565,294.8365,362.15UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.6%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1565,425.6565,294.83DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1565,411.5365,425.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.4%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1565,480.7265,411.53DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.0%WIN
09:30 → 09:35Nov 1565,611.6365,480.72DOWN6 / 9 UPDOWN52.5%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 1565,697.8065,561.73DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 1565,885.1765,697.80DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.0%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 1565,821.8165,885.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.8%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 1565,780.0965,821.81UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 1565,205.7365,780.09UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 1564,725.4765,205.73UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.3%151 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.3%151 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.3%151 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent53.0%151 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent54.3%151 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent51.0%151 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology