Skip to content
PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

11:10 → 11:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:10 → 11:15 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1110

Settled

Nov 15, 11:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,238.27
Index at 11:10:00

Final index

$65,274.59

Settlement price

$65,274.59
Index at 11:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,214.6765,251.8265,288.9665,326.1111:1011:1111:1211:1311:15PTB 65,238.27

Settlement $65,274.59

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.1%Low
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.6%
179 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 11:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Previous windowNext window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium53.1%179 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium53.6%179 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP56.3%
UP 56.3%43.7% DOWN
Medium50.3%179 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.3%
UP 45.7%54.3% DOWN
Medium50.8%179 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Low53.1%179 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP57.6%
UP 57.6%42.4% DOWN
Medium47.5%179 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low49.7%179 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low50.8%179 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.9%
UP 49.1%50.9% DOWN
Low41.9%179 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:10:00 UTC

11:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,238.27ok
  • Coinbase+2.8 bps65,256.63ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.0 bps65,232.07ok
Median of 3 sources$65,238.27

Settlement · 11:15:00 UTC

11:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,274.59ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps65,275.99ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps65,271.19ok
Median of 3 sources$65,274.59

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:05 → 11:10Nov 1565,478.1165,238.27DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 1565,514.0865,553.55UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.0%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 1565,500.6365,514.08UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%LOSS
10:45 → 10:50Nov 1565,525.7765,500.63DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 1565,519.7665,525.77UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.1%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 1565,473.2265,519.76UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 1565,456.5365,473.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 1565,477.5165,456.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 1565,477.6465,477.51DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 1565,587.4365,477.64DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1565,536.5365,587.43UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.1%179 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.8%179 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent49.7%179 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent53.6%179 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent53.1%179 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.8%179 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology