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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

11:05 → 11:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:05 → 11:10 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1105

Settled

Nov 15, 11:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,478.11
Index at 11:05:00

Final index

$65,238.27

Settlement price

$65,238.27
Index at 11:10:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,247.0565,324.8465,402.6211:0511:0611:0711:0811:10PTB 65,478.11

Settlement $65,238.27

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.5%Low
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.9%
176 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 11:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.5%
UP 47.5%52.5% DOWN
Medium52.8%176 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.4%
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Medium54.0%176 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.0%
UP 44.0%56.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%176 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium50.6%176 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP53.9%
UP 53.9%46.1% DOWN
Medium53.4%176 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium46.6%176 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.0%176 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.6%176 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Low42.6%176 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:05:00 UTC

11:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,478.11ok
  • Coinbase−2.0 bps65,464.73ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.4 bps65,480.80ok
Median of 3 sources$65,478.11

Settlement · 11:10:00 UTC

11:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,238.27ok
  • Coinbase+2.8 bps65,256.63ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.0 bps65,232.07ok
Median of 3 sources$65,238.27

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 1565,514.0865,553.55UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.0%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 1565,500.6365,514.08UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%LOSS
10:45 → 10:50Nov 1565,525.7765,500.63DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 1565,519.7665,525.77UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.1%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 1565,473.2265,519.76UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 1565,456.5365,473.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 1565,477.5165,456.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 1565,477.6465,477.51DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 1565,587.4365,477.64DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1565,536.5365,587.43UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.7%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1565,434.0665,536.53UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.4%176 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.6%176 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.0%176 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.0%176 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.6%176 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.0%176 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology