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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

14:00 → 14:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:00 → 14:05 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1400

Settled

Nov 15, 14:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,403.55
Index at 14:00:00

Final index

$65,239.41

Settlement price

$65,239.41
Index at 14:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,236.1865,289.9565,343.7114:0014:0114:0214:0314:05PTB 65,403.55

Settlement $65,239.41

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.4%High
UP 40.6%59.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.3%
240 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 14:00:10 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN59.5%
UP 40.5%59.5% DOWN
Medium48.8%240 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium54.6%240 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium47.5%240 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.4%
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Medium50.0%240 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low51.7%240 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.7%
UP 45.3%54.7% DOWN
Medium47.1%240 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.4%240 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.4%240 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.2%
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Low45.8%240 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:00:00 UTC

14:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps65,405.36ok
  • Coinbase−0.1 bps65,402.60ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,403.55ok
Median of 3 sources$65,403.55

Settlement · 14:05:00 UTC

14:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,239.41ok
  • Coinbase−0.6 bps65,235.35ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.6 bps65,243.00ok
Median of 3 sources$65,239.41

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:55 → 14:00Nov 1565,466.9665,403.55DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 1565,492.5565,466.96DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%WIN
13:45 → 13:50Nov 1565,466.6765,492.55UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.0%LOSS
13:40 → 13:45Nov 1565,334.8765,466.67UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 1565,459.4065,334.87DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.2%WIN
13:30 → 13:35Nov 1565,527.9065,459.40DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 1565,645.2565,527.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
13:20 → 13:25Nov 1565,585.7265,645.25UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 1565,511.3365,585.72UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS
13:10 → 13:15Nov 1565,495.4065,511.33UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.2%LOSS
13:05 → 13:10Nov 1565,500.0065,495.40DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%WIN
13:00 → 13:05Nov 1565,469.9465,500.00UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent51.7%240 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.4%240 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.4%240 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.6%240 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.0%240 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent45.8%240 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology