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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

04:35 → 04:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:35 → 04:40 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0435

Settled

Nov 15, 04:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,821.85
Index at 04:35:00

Final index

$1,814.56

Settlement price

$1,814.56
Index at 04:40:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,812.671,815.621,818.5704:3504:3604:3704:3804:40PTB 1,821.85

Settlement $1,814.56

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN63.5%High
UP 36.5%63.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.8%
41 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 04:35:03 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium58.5%41 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.5%
UP 43.5%56.5% DOWN
Medium61.0%41 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium51.2%41 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.9%
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Medium56.1%41 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Low63.4%41 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Medium58.5%41 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low58.5%41 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low53.7%41 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low56.1%41 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:35:00 UTC

04:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,821.85ok
  • Coinbase+0.4 bps1,821.93ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.6 bps1,821.74ok
Median of 3 sources$1,821.85

Settlement · 04:40:00 UTC

04:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,814.47ok
  • Coinbase+1.8 bps1,814.89ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,814.56ok
Median of 3 sources$1,814.56

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:30 → 04:35Nov 151,817.821,821.85UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%LOSS
04:25 → 04:30Nov 151,815.771,817.82UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.7%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 151,816.101,815.77DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.3%WIN
04:15 → 04:20Nov 151,819.791,816.10DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 151,811.541,819.79UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 151,814.691,811.54DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 151,817.761,814.69DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.8%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 151,815.721,817.76UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 151,816.911,815.72DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 151,824.951,816.91DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.1%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 151,818.161,824.95UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 151,813.391,818.16UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent61.0%41 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent63.4%41 mkts
  3. 3RSI Divergence Agent56.1%41 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent58.5%41 mkts
  5. 5Volatility Agent58.5%41 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent56.1%41 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology