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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

03:50 → 03:55 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:50 → 03:55 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0350

Settled

Nov 15, 03:55:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,816.91
Index at 03:50:00

Final index

$1,815.72

Settlement price

$1,815.72
Index at 03:55:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,815.781,818.491,819.8403:5003:5103:5203:5303:55PTB 1,816.91

Settlement $1,815.72

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN57.5%Medium
UP 42.5%57.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
46.2%
26 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 03:50:03 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:50:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.0%
UP 42.0%58.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%26 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN57.6%
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Medium69.2%26 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Medium46.2%26 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Medium53.8%26 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium61.5%26 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Medium57.7%26 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.3%
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Low50.0%26 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low50.0%26 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low50.0%26 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:50:00 UTC

03:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.7 bps1,816.77ok
  • Coinbase+0.5 bps1,817.00ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,816.91ok
Median of 3 sources$1,816.91

Settlement · 03:55:00 UTC

03:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.0 bps1,815.71ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.0 bps1,815.72ok
Median of 2 sources$1,815.72

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:45 → 03:50Nov 151,824.951,816.91DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.1%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 151,818.161,824.95UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 151,813.391,818.16UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 151,819.851,813.39DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN50.2%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 151,821.651,819.85DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN58.4%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 151,826.001,821.65DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 151,822.181,826.00UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 151,823.931,822.18DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%WIN
03:05 → 03:10Nov 151,823.651,823.93UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 151,815.031,823.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 151,813.071,815.03UP5 / 9 UPDOWN59.1%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 151,810.061,813.07UP5 / 9 UPDOWN56.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent69.2%26 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent57.7%26 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent61.5%26 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent50.0%26 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent50.0%26 mkts
  6. 6Liquidation Agent50.0%26 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology