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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

03:10 → 03:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:10 → 03:15 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0310

Settled

Nov 15, 03:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,823.93
Index at 03:10:00

Final index

$1,822.18

Settlement price

$1,822.18
Index at 03:15:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,822.351,824.631,826.921,829.2003:1003:1103:1203:1303:15PTB 1,823.93

Settlement $1,822.18

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN64.4%High
UP 35.6%64.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
33.3%
12 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 03:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium33.3%12 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.2%
UP 44.8%55.2% DOWN
Medium58.3%12 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.6%
UP 40.4%59.6% DOWN
Medium33.3%12 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.1%
UP 43.9%56.1% DOWN
Medium33.3%12 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low50.0%12 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN52.4%
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Medium58.3%12 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low66.7%12 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low58.3%12 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low41.7%12 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:10:00 UTC

03:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,823.93ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps1,823.87ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps1,824.07ok
Median of 3 sources$1,823.93

Settlement · 03:15:00 UTC

03:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.1 bps1,822.19ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.0 bps1,822.01ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,822.18ok
Median of 3 sources$1,822.18

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:05 → 03:10Nov 151,823.651,823.93UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 151,815.031,823.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 151,813.071,815.03UP5 / 9 UPDOWN59.1%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 151,810.061,813.07UP5 / 9 UPDOWN56.5%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 151,810.471,810.06DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.6%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 151,808.301,810.47UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.6%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 151,801.911,808.30UP5 / 9 UPDOWN61.3%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 151,802.861,801.91DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%WIN
02:25 → 02:30Nov 151,792.661,802.86UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent66.7%12 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent58.3%12 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent58.3%12 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent58.3%12 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent50.0%12 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent41.7%12 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology