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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

03:20 → 03:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:20 → 03:25 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0320

Settled

Nov 15, 03:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,826.00
Index at 03:20:00

Final index

$1,821.65

Settlement price

$1,821.65
Index at 03:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,821.811,823.251,824.6903:2003:2103:2203:2303:25PTB 1,826.00

Settlement $1,821.65

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.6%High
UP 40.4%59.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
37.5%
16 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 03:20:03 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium37.5%16 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium62.5%16 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.0%
UP 42.0%58.0% DOWN
Medium37.5%16 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.1%
UP 45.9%54.1% DOWN
Medium37.5%16 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Low56.3%16 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP51.0%
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%16 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low50.0%16 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.0%16 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low37.5%16 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:20:00 UTC

03:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,825.92ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,826.00ok
  • Coinbase+0.7 bps1,826.13ok
Median of 3 sources$1,826.00

Settlement · 03:25:00 UTC

03:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,821.65ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.6 bps1,821.76ok
  • Coinbase−0.2 bps1,821.61ok
Median of 3 sources$1,821.65

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:15 → 03:20Nov 151,822.181,826.00UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 151,823.931,822.18DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%WIN
03:05 → 03:10Nov 151,823.651,823.93UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 151,815.031,823.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 151,813.071,815.03UP5 / 9 UPDOWN59.1%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 151,810.061,813.07UP5 / 9 UPDOWN56.5%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 151,810.471,810.06DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.6%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 151,808.301,810.47UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.6%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 151,801.911,808.30UP5 / 9 UPDOWN61.3%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 151,802.861,801.91DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%WIN
02:25 → 02:30Nov 151,792.661,802.86UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent62.5%16 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent56.3%16 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent50.0%16 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent50.0%16 mkts
  5. 5Liquidation Agent50.0%16 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent37.5%16 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology