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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

08:40 → 08:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:40 → 08:45 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0840

Settled

Nov 15, 08:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,796.63
Index at 08:40:00

Final index

$1,799.29

Settlement price

$1,799.29
Index at 08:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,796.081,797.571,799.051,800.5408:4008:4108:4208:4308:45PTB 1,796.63

Settlement $1,799.29

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN64.9%High
UP 35.1%64.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.2%
122 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 08:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.2%
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Medium54.1%122 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN56.4%
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Medium54.1%122 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.7%
UP 41.3%58.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%122 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%122 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Low50.8%122 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium49.2%122 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low54.1%122 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low54.9%122 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low53.3%122 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:40:00 UTC

08:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.0 bps1,796.62ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.0 bps1,796.64ok
Median of 2 sources$1,796.63

Settlement · 08:45:00 UTC

08:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,799.27ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.1 bps1,799.31ok
Median of 2 sources$1,799.29

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:35 → 08:40Nov 151,799.951,796.63DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 151,794.231,799.95UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%LOSS
08:25 → 08:30Nov 151,786.801,794.23UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 151,777.861,786.80UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 151,778.231,777.86DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 151,785.321,778.23DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 151,782.491,785.32UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.3%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 151,781.041,782.49UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 151,778.611,781.04UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 151,775.561,778.61UP6 / 9 DOWNUP54.1%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 151,777.991,775.56DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP57.0%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 151,783.821,777.99DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent54.1%122 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent54.1%122 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent54.1%122 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent53.3%122 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent54.9%122 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent50.8%122 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology