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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

08:55 → 09:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:55 → 09:00 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0855

Settled

Nov 15, 09:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,800.70
Index at 08:55:00

Final index

$1,811.63

Settlement price

$1,811.63
Index at 09:00:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,804.261,807.751,811.2408:5508:5608:5708:5809:00PTB 1,800.70

Settlement $1,811.63

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN56.7%High
UP 43.3%56.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.4%
128 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 08:55:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Medium53.9%128 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Medium53.9%128 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.1%
UP 42.9%57.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%128 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%128 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.0%128 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Medium50.0%128 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low53.9%128 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low54.7%128 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.1%
UP 51.1%48.9% DOWN
Low52.3%128 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:55:00 UTC

08:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps1,800.56ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,800.70ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps1,800.76ok
Median of 3 sources$1,800.70

Settlement · 09:00:00 UTC

09:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.0 bps1,811.81ok
  • Coinbase−1.9 bps1,811.28ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,811.63ok
Median of 3 sources$1,811.63

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:50 → 08:55Nov 151,797.691,800.70UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.3%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 151,799.291,797.69DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 151,796.631,799.29UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.9%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 151,799.951,796.63DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 151,794.231,799.95UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%LOSS
08:25 → 08:30Nov 151,786.801,794.23UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 151,777.861,786.80UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 151,778.231,777.86DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 151,785.321,778.23DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 151,782.491,785.32UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.3%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 151,781.041,782.49UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 151,778.611,781.04UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent53.9%128 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent53.9%128 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent52.3%128 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent53.9%128 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent54.7%128 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent50.0%128 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology