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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

11:15 → 11:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:15 → 11:20 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1115

Settled

Nov 15, 11:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,826.46
Index at 11:15:00

Final index

$1,829.98

Settlement price

$1,829.98
Index at 11:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,827.461,828.731,830.0111:1511:1611:1711:1811:20PTB 1,826.46

Settlement $1,829.98

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.2%Low
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.3%
174 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 11:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium54.0%174 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Medium54.0%174 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Medium51.1%174 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium50.6%174 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP53.6%
UP 53.6%46.4% DOWN
Medium46.0%174 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN56.4%
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Medium49.4%174 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.0%174 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low52.9%174 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.3%
UP 52.3%47.7% DOWN
Low50.6%174 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:15:00 UTC

11:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,826.36ok
  • Coinbase+0.9 bps1,826.62ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,826.46ok
Median of 3 sources$1,826.46

Settlement · 11:20:00 UTC

11:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,829.96ok
  • Coinbase+2.2 bps1,830.39ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,829.98ok
Median of 3 sources$1,829.98

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:10 → 11:15Nov 151,824.151,826.46UP7 / 9 UPUP50.3%WIN
11:05 → 11:10Nov 151,828.731,824.15DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 151,829.231,830.34UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 151,828.361,829.23UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.6%LOSS
10:45 → 10:50Nov 151,828.551,828.36DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.3%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 151,827.201,828.55UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.4%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 151,826.501,827.20UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.1%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 151,828.311,826.50DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN55.2%WIN
10:25 → 10:30Nov 151,827.711,828.31UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
10:20 → 10:25Nov 151,828.531,827.71DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 151,831.161,828.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.5%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Trend Agent54.0%174 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent54.0%174 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent52.9%174 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent50.6%174 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent51.1%174 mkts
  6. 6Liquidation Agent50.0%174 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology