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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

10:30 → 10:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:30 → 10:35 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1030

Settled

Nov 15, 10:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,828.31
Index at 10:30:00

Final index

$1,826.50

Settlement price

$1,826.50
Index at 10:35:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,826.151,826.961,827.781,828.5910:3010:3110:3210:3310:35PTB 1,828.31

Settlement $1,826.50

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN55.2%Medium
UP 44.8%55.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.5%
158 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 10:30:09 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Medium53.8%158 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium53.2%158 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Medium50.6%158 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium49.4%158 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low46.8%158 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%158 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low50.6%158 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low53.8%158 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Low49.4%158 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:30:00 UTC

10:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,828.23ok
  • Coinbase+1.2 bps1,828.53ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,828.31ok
Median of 3 sources$1,828.31

Settlement · 10:35:00 UTC

10:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,826.50ok
  • Coinbase−0.3 bps1,826.44ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.6 bps1,826.78ok
Median of 3 sources$1,826.50

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:25 → 10:30Nov 151,827.711,828.31UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
10:20 → 10:25Nov 151,828.531,827.71DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 151,831.161,828.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.5%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 151,830.311,831.16UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.2%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 151,826.711,830.31UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 151,821.321,826.71UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.6%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 151,825.861,821.32DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.8%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 151,824.831,825.86UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 151,828.221,824.83DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.5%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 151,826.251,828.22UP5 / 9 UPDOWN50.7%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 151,827.331,826.25DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.0%WIN
09:30 → 09:35Nov 151,831.681,827.33DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Trend Agent53.8%158 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent53.8%158 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent53.2%158 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent50.6%158 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent49.4%158 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.6%158 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology