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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

09:30 → 09:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:30 → 09:35 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0930

Settled

Nov 15, 09:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,831.68
Index at 09:30:00

Final index

$1,827.33

Settlement price

$1,827.33
Index at 09:35:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,827.191,828.731,830.2709:3009:3109:3209:3309:35PTB 1,831.68

Settlement $1,827.33

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN56.9%High
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.2%
139 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 09:30:07 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium54.0%139 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium54.7%139 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Medium51.1%139 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.1%
UP 45.9%54.1% DOWN
Medium50.4%139 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low49.6%139 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Medium50.4%139 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Low51.8%139 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low54.0%139 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low50.4%139 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:30:00 UTC

09:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.2 bps1,831.71ok
  • Coinbase−0.4 bps1,831.61ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,831.68ok
Median of 3 sources$1,831.68

Settlement · 09:35:00 UTC

09:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,827.33ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps1,827.48ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.2 bps1,827.30ok
Median of 3 sources$1,827.33

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 151,834.211,828.84DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 151,837.581,834.21DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 151,832.341,837.58UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 151,825.301,832.34UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.0%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 151,811.631,825.30UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 151,800.701,811.63UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 151,797.691,800.70UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.3%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 151,799.291,797.69DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 151,796.631,799.29UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.9%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 151,799.951,796.63DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 151,794.231,799.95UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Trend Agent54.0%139 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent54.7%139 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent51.8%139 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent54.0%139 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent50.4%139 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent51.1%139 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology