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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

09:55 → 10:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:55 → 10:00 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0955

Settled

Nov 15, 10:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,825.86
Index at 09:55:00

Final index

$1,821.32

Settlement price

$1,821.32
Index at 10:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,818.731,821.101,823.4609:5509:5609:5709:5810:00PTB 1,825.86

Settlement $1,821.32

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.8%High
UP 40.2%59.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.3%
147 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 09:55:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.3%
UP 43.7%56.3% DOWN
Medium55.1%147 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium54.4%147 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.3%
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Medium52.4%147 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.3%
UP 43.7%56.3% DOWN
Medium50.3%147 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP53.7%
UP 53.7%46.3% DOWN
Medium49.0%147 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Medium50.3%147 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low51.0%147 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low53.1%147 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Low51.7%147 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:55:00 UTC

09:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,825.85ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps1,825.90ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,825.86ok
Median of 3 sources$1,825.86

Settlement · 10:00:00 UTC

10:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,821.32ok
  • Coinbase−0.4 bps1,821.24ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.4 bps1,821.40ok
Median of 3 sources$1,821.32

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:50 → 09:55Nov 151,824.831,825.86UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 151,828.221,824.83DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.5%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 151,826.251,828.22UP5 / 9 UPDOWN50.7%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 151,827.331,826.25DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.0%WIN
09:30 → 09:35Nov 151,831.681,827.33DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 151,834.211,828.84DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 151,837.581,834.21DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 151,832.341,837.58UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 151,825.301,832.34UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.0%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 151,811.631,825.30UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 151,800.701,811.63UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Trend Agent55.1%147 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent54.4%147 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent51.7%147 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent53.1%147 mkts
  5. 5Liquidation Agent51.0%147 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent52.4%147 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology