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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

10:10 → 10:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:10 → 10:15 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1010

Settled

Nov 15, 10:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,830.31
Index at 10:10:00

Final index

$1,831.16

Settlement price

$1,831.16
Index at 10:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,828.631,829.591,830.561,831.5210:1010:1110:1210:1310:15PTB 1,830.31

Settlement $1,831.16

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN67.2%High
UP 32.8%67.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.7%
151 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 10:10:05 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.7%
UP 45.3%54.7% DOWN
Medium54.3%151 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN60.8%
UP 39.2%60.8% DOWN
Medium53.6%151 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium51.0%151 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN59.4%
UP 40.6%59.4% DOWN
Medium49.7%151 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low49.0%151 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium49.7%151 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Low51.0%151 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low53.6%151 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low51.0%151 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:10:00 UTC

10:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.2 bps1,830.35ok
  • Coinbase−0.2 bps1,830.27ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,830.31ok
Median of 3 sources$1,830.31

Settlement · 10:15:00 UTC

10:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,831.16ok
  • Coinbase+3.3 bps1,831.77ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.7 bps1,831.03ok
Median of 3 sources$1,831.16

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:05 → 10:10Nov 151,826.711,830.31UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 151,821.321,826.71UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.6%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 151,825.861,821.32DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.8%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 151,824.831,825.86UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 151,828.221,824.83DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.5%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 151,826.251,828.22UP5 / 9 UPDOWN50.7%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 151,827.331,826.25DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.0%WIN
09:30 → 09:35Nov 151,831.681,827.33DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 151,834.211,828.84DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 151,837.581,834.21DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 151,832.341,837.58UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Trend Agent54.3%151 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent51.0%151 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent53.6%151 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent51.0%151 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent53.6%151 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent51.0%151 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology