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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

11:40 → 11:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:40 → 11:45 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1140

Settled

Nov 15, 11:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,832.67
Index at 11:40:00

Final index

$1,831.74

Settlement price

$1,831.74
Index at 11:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,831.731,833.771,834.7911:4011:4111:4211:4311:45PTB 1,832.67

Settlement $1,831.74

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.3%Low
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.1%
185 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 11:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.0%
UP 47.0%53.0% DOWN
Medium53.0%185 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium53.5%185 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.1%
UP 45.9%54.1% DOWN
Medium50.8%185 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN50.9%
UP 49.1%50.9% DOWN
Medium50.3%185 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.7%
UP 52.7%47.3% DOWN
Low45.9%185 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN57.1%
UP 42.9%57.1% DOWN
Medium49.2%185 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low48.6%185 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low53.0%185 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low51.9%185 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:40:00 UTC

11:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,832.67ok
  • Coinbase−0.5 bps1,832.58ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.1 bps1,833.06ok
Median of 3 sources$1,832.67

Settlement · 11:45:00 UTC

11:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,831.74ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps1,831.77ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.0 bps1,831.73ok
Median of 3 sources$1,831.74

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:35 → 11:40Nov 151,831.941,832.67UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.0%WIN
11:30 → 11:35Nov 151,832.281,831.94DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%WIN
11:25 → 11:30Nov 151,832.471,832.28DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%WIN
11:20 → 11:25Nov 151,829.981,832.47UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.2%LOSS
11:15 → 11:20Nov 151,826.461,829.98UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.2%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 151,824.151,826.46UP7 / 9 UPUP50.3%WIN
11:05 → 11:10Nov 151,828.731,824.15DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 151,829.231,830.34UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 151,828.361,829.23UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.6%LOSS
10:45 → 10:50Nov 151,828.551,828.36DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.3%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 151,827.201,828.55UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.4%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent53.5%185 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent53.0%185 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent51.9%185 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent53.0%185 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent50.8%185 mkts
  6. 6Liquidation Agent48.6%185 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology