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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

14:15 → 14:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:15 → 14:20 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1415

Settled

Nov 15, 14:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,820.79
Index at 14:15:00

Final index

$1,824.65

Settlement price

$1,824.65
Index at 14:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,819.581,823.131,826.671,830.2214:1514:1614:1714:1814:20PTB 1,820.79

Settlement $1,824.65

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN56.9%Medium
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.2%
240 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 14:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium52.9%240 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN54.8%
UP 45.2%54.8% DOWN
Medium52.9%240 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Medium50.4%240 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Medium49.6%240 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium47.5%240 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium50.8%240 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low47.9%240 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low53.8%240 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low54.6%240 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:15:00 UTC

14:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.0 bps1,820.79ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,820.79ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps1,820.93ok
Median of 3 sources$1,820.79

Settlement · 14:20:00 UTC

14:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,824.65ok
  • Coinbase+0.5 bps1,824.73ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,824.62ok
Median of 3 sources$1,824.65

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
14:10 → 14:15Nov 151,821.151,820.79DOWN5 / 9 UPUP51.6%LOSS
14:05 → 14:10Nov 151,820.721,821.15UP5 / 9 UPDOWN50.6%LOSS
14:00 → 14:05Nov 151,829.781,820.72DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%WIN
13:55 → 14:00Nov 151,834.641,829.78DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 151,833.411,834.64UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%LOSS
13:45 → 13:50Nov 151,832.091,833.41UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS
13:40 → 13:45Nov 151,827.931,832.09UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 151,831.631,827.93DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.6%WIN
13:30 → 13:35Nov 151,835.011,831.63DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 151,836.531,835.01DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.7%WIN
13:20 → 13:25Nov 151,833.651,836.53UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 151,833.771,833.65DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.3%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Whale Flow Agent54.6%240 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent52.9%240 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent52.9%240 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent53.8%240 mkts
  5. 5Volatility Agent50.8%240 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.4%240 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology