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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

13:15 → 13:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled13:15 → 13:20 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1315

Settled

Nov 15, 13:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,833.77
Index at 13:15:00

Final index

$1,833.65

Settlement price

$1,833.65
Index at 13:20:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,832.111,833.041,834.9013:1513:1613:1713:1813:20PTB 1,833.77

Settlement $1,833.65

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN53.3%Low
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.6%
220 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 13:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 13:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium52.7%220 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN52.4%
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Medium52.3%220 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.3%
UP 42.7%57.3% DOWN
Medium50.9%220 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium49.5%220 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low46.4%220 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium50.5%220 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low48.6%220 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low53.2%220 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low54.1%220 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 13:15:00 UTC

13:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.0 bps1,833.59ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,833.77ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.7 bps1,833.91ok
Median of 3 sources$1,833.77

Settlement · 13:20:00 UTC

13:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,833.65ok
  • Coinbase−1.0 bps1,833.46ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.3 bps1,833.89ok
Median of 3 sources$1,833.65

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:10 → 13:15Nov 151,833.031,833.77UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.3%LOSS
13:05 → 13:10Nov 151,834.671,833.03DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.6%WIN
13:00 → 13:05Nov 151,834.971,834.67DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.3%LOSS
12:55 → 13:00Nov 151,832.231,834.97UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS
12:50 → 12:55Nov 151,829.601,832.23UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.6%LOSS
12:45 → 12:50Nov 151,829.521,829.60UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%LOSS
12:40 → 12:45Nov 151,829.101,829.52UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.0%LOSS
12:35 → 12:40Nov 151,832.321,829.10DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%WIN
12:30 → 12:35Nov 151,830.521,832.32UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%LOSS
12:25 → 12:30Nov 151,831.631,830.52DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
12:20 → 12:25Nov 151,830.911,831.63UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 151,825.701,830.91UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Whale Flow Agent54.1%220 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent52.7%220 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent52.3%220 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent53.2%220 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent50.9%220 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent50.5%220 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology