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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

12:25 → 12:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:25 → 12:30 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1225

Settled

Nov 15, 12:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,831.63
Index at 12:25:00

Final index

$1,830.52

Settlement price

$1,830.52
Index at 12:30:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,828.301,829.851,832.9512:2512:2612:2712:2812:30PTB 1,831.63

Settlement $1,830.52

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.0%Medium
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.0%
200 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 12:25:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium52.5%200 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN59.9%
UP 40.1%59.9% DOWN
Medium53.0%200 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.7%
UP 45.3%54.7% DOWN
Medium50.5%200 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium50.0%200 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low46.5%200 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium50.0%200 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Low48.5%200 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low53.5%200 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Low52.5%200 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:25:00 UTC

12:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.4 bps1,831.89ok
  • Coinbase−0.1 bps1,831.61ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,831.63ok
Median of 3 sources$1,831.63

Settlement · 12:30:00 UTC

12:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,830.50ok
  • Coinbase+0.4 bps1,830.60ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,830.52ok
Median of 3 sources$1,830.52

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:20 → 12:25Nov 151,830.911,831.63UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 151,825.701,830.91UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS
12:10 → 12:15Nov 151,825.741,825.70DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%WIN
12:05 → 12:10Nov 151,818.691,825.74UP6 / 9 UPUP52.1%WIN
12:00 → 12:05Nov 151,822.351,818.69DOWN7 / 9 UPUP52.1%LOSS
11:55 → 12:00Nov 151,830.171,822.35DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 151,831.901,830.17DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.9%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 151,831.741,831.90UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.6%LOSS
11:40 → 11:45Nov 151,832.671,831.74DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%WIN
11:35 → 11:40Nov 151,831.941,832.67UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.0%WIN
11:30 → 11:35Nov 151,832.281,831.94DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%WIN
11:25 → 11:30Nov 151,832.471,832.28DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent53.0%200 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent52.5%200 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent52.5%200 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent53.5%200 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent50.5%200 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent50.0%200 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology