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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

11:55 → 12:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:55 → 12:00 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1155

Settled

Nov 15, 12:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,830.17
Index at 11:55:00

Final index

$1,822.35

Settlement price

$1,822.35
Index at 12:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,822.551,825.001,827.4411:5511:5611:5711:5812:00PTB 1,830.17

Settlement $1,822.35

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN52.2%Low
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.4%
190 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 11:55:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.8%
UP 45.2%54.8% DOWN
Medium53.2%190 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.2%
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Medium53.7%190 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Medium51.1%190 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium50.5%190 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.9%
UP 52.9%47.1% DOWN
Low45.8%190 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Medium48.9%190 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low48.9%190 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low52.6%190 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low52.1%190 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:55:00 UTC

11:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.6 bps1,830.06ok
  • Coinbase+0.0 bps1,830.18ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,830.17ok
Median of 3 sources$1,830.17

Settlement · 12:00:00 UTC

12:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.6 bps1,822.45ok
  • Coinbase−0.1 bps1,822.33ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,822.35ok
Median of 3 sources$1,822.35

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:50 → 11:55Nov 151,831.901,830.17DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.9%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 151,831.741,831.90UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.6%LOSS
11:40 → 11:45Nov 151,832.671,831.74DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%WIN
11:35 → 11:40Nov 151,831.941,832.67UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.0%WIN
11:30 → 11:35Nov 151,832.281,831.94DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%WIN
11:25 → 11:30Nov 151,832.471,832.28DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%WIN
11:20 → 11:25Nov 151,829.981,832.47UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.2%LOSS
11:15 → 11:20Nov 151,826.461,829.98UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.2%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 151,824.151,826.46UP7 / 9 UPUP50.3%WIN
11:05 → 11:10Nov 151,828.731,824.15DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 151,829.231,830.34UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Trend Agent53.2%190 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent53.7%190 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent52.1%190 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent52.6%190 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent51.1%190 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.5%190 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology