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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

12:35 → 12:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:35 → 12:40 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1235

Settled

Nov 15, 12:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,832.32
Index at 12:35:00

Final index

$1,829.10

Settlement price

$1,829.10
Index at 12:40:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,828.861,829.971,831.0812:3512:3612:3712:3812:40PTB 1,832.32

Settlement $1,829.10

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN52.8%Low
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.8%
203 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 12:35:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium52.2%203 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN52.7%
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Medium53.2%203 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium50.2%203 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.3%
UP 42.7%57.3% DOWN
Medium49.8%203 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low46.8%203 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium49.8%203 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low48.8%203 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low54.2%203 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Low52.7%203 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:35:00 UTC

12:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.4 bps1,832.05ok
  • Coinbase+2.5 bps1,832.77ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,832.32ok
Median of 3 sources$1,832.32

Settlement · 12:40:00 UTC

12:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,829.08ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps1,829.14ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,829.10ok
Median of 3 sources$1,829.10

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:30 → 12:35Nov 151,830.521,832.32UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%LOSS
12:25 → 12:30Nov 151,831.631,830.52DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
12:20 → 12:25Nov 151,830.911,831.63UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 151,825.701,830.91UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS
12:10 → 12:15Nov 151,825.741,825.70DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%WIN
12:05 → 12:10Nov 151,818.691,825.74UP6 / 9 UPUP52.1%WIN
12:00 → 12:05Nov 151,822.351,818.69DOWN7 / 9 UPUP52.1%LOSS
11:55 → 12:00Nov 151,830.171,822.35DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 151,831.901,830.17DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.9%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 151,831.741,831.90UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.6%LOSS
11:40 → 11:45Nov 151,832.671,831.74DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%WIN
11:35 → 11:40Nov 151,831.941,832.67UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.0%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent53.2%203 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent52.7%203 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent52.2%203 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent54.2%203 mkts
  5. 5Liquidation Agent48.8%203 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.2%203 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology