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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

13:05 → 13:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled13:05 → 13:10 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1305

Settled

Nov 15, 13:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,834.67
Index at 13:05:00

Final index

$1,833.03

Settlement price

$1,833.03
Index at 13:10:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,830.971,832.391,833.821,835.2413:0513:0613:0713:0813:10PTB 1,834.67

Settlement $1,833.03

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.6%Low
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.9%
215 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 13:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 13:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium52.6%215 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium52.1%215 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium50.2%215 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium49.8%215 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low46.5%215 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium49.3%215 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low49.3%215 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low53.5%215 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Low53.5%215 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 13:05:00 UTC

13:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,834.67ok
  • Coinbase−0.1 bps1,834.66ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.6 bps1,834.79ok
Median of 3 sources$1,834.67

Settlement · 13:10:00 UTC

13:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps1,832.87ok
  • Coinbase+1.4 bps1,833.28ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,833.03ok
Median of 3 sources$1,833.03

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:00 → 13:05Nov 151,834.971,834.67DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.3%LOSS
12:55 → 13:00Nov 151,832.231,834.97UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS
12:50 → 12:55Nov 151,829.601,832.23UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.6%LOSS
12:45 → 12:50Nov 151,829.521,829.60UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%LOSS
12:40 → 12:45Nov 151,829.101,829.52UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.0%LOSS
12:35 → 12:40Nov 151,832.321,829.10DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%WIN
12:30 → 12:35Nov 151,830.521,832.32UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%LOSS
12:25 → 12:30Nov 151,831.631,830.52DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
12:20 → 12:25Nov 151,830.911,831.63UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 151,825.701,830.91UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS
12:10 → 12:15Nov 151,825.741,825.70DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%WIN
12:05 → 12:10Nov 151,818.691,825.74UP6 / 9 UPUP52.1%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Trend Agent52.6%215 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent53.5%215 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent53.5%215 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent52.1%215 mkts
  5. 5Liquidation Agent49.3%215 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.2%215 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology