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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

14:40 → 14:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:40 → 14:45 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-1440

Settled

Nov 15, 14:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,806.42
Index at 14:40:00

Final index

$1,799.01

Settlement price

$1,799.01
Index at 14:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,794.361,798.231,802.1114:4014:4114:4214:4314:45PTB 1,806.42

Settlement $1,799.01

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN52.7%Low
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.6%
250 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 14:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.9%
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Medium53.2%250 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium52.0%250 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP52.0%
UP 52.0%48.0% DOWN
Medium51.6%250 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP52.3%
UP 52.3%47.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%250 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low48.0%250 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN57.0%
UP 43.0%57.0% DOWN
Medium50.8%250 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low49.2%250 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low54.0%250 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Low54.8%250 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:40:00 UTC

14:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.2 bps1,806.38ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,806.42ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.9 bps1,806.77ok
Median of 3 sources$1,806.42

Settlement · 14:45:00 UTC

14:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,799.01ok
  • Coinbase+1.5 bps1,799.27ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,798.98ok
Median of 3 sources$1,799.01

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
14:35 → 14:40Nov 151,813.041,806.42DOWN7 / 9 DOWNUP50.0%LOSS
14:30 → 14:35Nov 151,811.601,813.04UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.9%LOSS
14:25 → 14:30Nov 151,820.721,811.60DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.7%WIN
14:20 → 14:25Nov 151,824.651,820.72DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%WIN
14:15 → 14:20Nov 151,820.791,824.65UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%LOSS
14:10 → 14:15Nov 151,821.151,820.79DOWN5 / 9 UPUP51.6%LOSS
14:05 → 14:10Nov 151,820.721,821.15UP5 / 9 UPDOWN50.6%LOSS
14:00 → 14:05Nov 151,829.781,820.72DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%WIN
13:55 → 14:00Nov 151,834.641,829.78DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 151,833.411,834.64UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%LOSS
13:45 → 13:50Nov 151,832.091,833.41UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS
13:40 → 13:45Nov 151,827.931,832.09UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Whale Flow Agent54.8%250 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent53.2%250 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent54.0%250 mkts
  4. 4Mean Reversion Agent51.6%250 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent52.0%250 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent50.8%250 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology