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PROBORA

Market record

LINK Up or Down · 5 Min

08:05 → 08:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:05 → 08:10 UTC

Market ID link-5m-20261115-0805

Settled

Nov 15, 08:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$9.040
Index at 08:05:00

Final index

$9.044

Settlement price

$9.044
Index at 08:10:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
9.0269.0359.0449.05308:0508:0608:0708:0808:10PTB 9.040

Settlement $9.044

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN67.9%High
UP 32.1%67.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
44.6%
56 markets
Model version
meta-link5-v1
published 08:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.5%
UP 47.5%52.5% DOWN
Medium48.2%56 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN65.8%
UP 34.2%65.8% DOWN
High44.6%56 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.6%
UP 43.4%56.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%56 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN59.3%
UP 40.7%59.3% DOWN
Medium44.6%56 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP52.3%
UP 52.3%47.7% DOWN
Low50.0%56 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN58.2%
UP 41.8%58.2% DOWN
Medium39.3%56 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low55.4%56 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low50.0%56 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low48.2%56 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for LINK: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:05:00 UTC

08:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.4 bps9.039ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.4 bps9.041ok
Median of 2 sources$9.040

Settlement · 08:10:00 UTC

08:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps9.044ok
  • Coinbase+6.2 bps9.050ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.6 bps9.044ok
Median of 3 sources$9.044

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min LINK windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:00 → 08:05Nov 159.0349.040UP5 / 9 UPDOWN59.6%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 159.0199.034UP6 / 9 UPDOWN53.1%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 159.0059.019UP7 / 9 UPUP57.1%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 159.0149.005DOWN6 / 9 UPUP58.3%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 159.0639.014DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN52.4%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 159.0759.063DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN54.8%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 159.1089.075DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 159.1039.108UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.1%LOSS
07:20 → 07:25Nov 159.1049.103DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.2%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 159.0859.104UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.9%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 159.1069.085DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.4%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 159.0789.106UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on LINK · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · LINK 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent55.4%56 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.0%56 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent50.0%56 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.2%56 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent48.2%56 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.0%56 mkts

About this market

Chainlink · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology