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PROBORA

Market record

LINK Up or Down · 5 Min

08:40 → 08:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:40 → 08:45 UTC

Market ID link-5m-20261115-0840

Settled

Nov 15, 08:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$9.067
Index at 08:40:00

Final index

$9.075

Settlement price

$9.075
Index at 08:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
9.0629.0759.08208:4008:4108:4208:4308:45PTB 9.067

Settlement $9.075

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN68.0%High
UP 32.0%68.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
43.9%
66 markets
Model version
meta-link5-v1
published 08:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN59.5%
UP 40.5%59.5% DOWN
Medium47.0%66 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN58.1%
UP 41.9%58.1% DOWN
Medium43.9%66 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.9%
UP 42.1%57.9% DOWN
Medium48.5%66 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.0%
UP 43.0%57.0% DOWN
Medium43.9%66 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low47.0%66 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN60.4%
UP 39.6%60.4% DOWN
Medium40.9%66 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low56.1%66 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low50.0%66 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Low42.4%66 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for LINK: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:40:00 UTC

08:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.7 bps9.065ok
  • Coinbase+4.6 bps9.071ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps9.067ok
Median of 3 sources$9.067

Settlement · 08:45:00 UTC

08:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.6 bps9.074ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps9.075ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps9.075ok
Median of 3 sources$9.075

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min LINK windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:35 → 08:40Nov 159.0929.067DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.3%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 159.0869.092UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.8%LOSS
08:25 → 08:30Nov 159.0419.086UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.3%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 159.0039.041UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.6%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 159.0029.003UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.2%LOSS
08:10 → 08:15Nov 159.0449.002DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.2%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 159.0409.044UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 159.0349.040UP5 / 9 UPDOWN59.6%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 159.0199.034UP6 / 9 UPDOWN53.1%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 159.0059.019UP7 / 9 UPUP57.1%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 159.0149.005DOWN6 / 9 UPUP58.3%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 159.0639.014DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN52.4%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on LINK · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · LINK 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent56.1%66 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.0%66 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent47.0%66 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent42.4%66 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent48.5%66 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent47.0%66 mkts

About this market

Chainlink · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology