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PROBORA

Market record

NEAR Up or Down · 5 Min

14:00 → 14:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:00 → 14:05 UTC

Market ID near-5m-20261115-1400

Settled

Nov 15, 14:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$3.161
Index at 14:00:00

Final index

$3.134

Settlement price

$3.134
Index at 14:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
3.1333.1423.15114:0014:0114:0214:0314:05PTB 3.161

Settlement $3.134

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.0%High
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.6%
168 markets
Model version
meta-near5-v1
published 14:00:10 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium48.8%168 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium50.6%168 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.7%
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Medium50.6%168 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Medium50.0%168 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low54.8%168 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.2%
UP 44.8%55.2% DOWN
Medium48.2%168 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low45.2%168 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low53.6%168 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low54.2%168 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for NEAR: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:00:00 UTC

14:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.161ok
  • Coinbase−0.4 bps3.161ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.6 bps3.161ok
Median of 3 sources$3.161

Settlement · 14:05:00 UTC

14:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.134ok
  • Coinbase+7.2 bps3.136ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.6 bps3.133ok
Median of 3 sources$3.134

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min NEAR windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:55 → 14:00Nov 153.1723.161DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 153.1743.172DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%WIN
13:45 → 13:50Nov 153.1763.174DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%WIN
13:40 → 13:45Nov 153.1763.176FLAT5 / 9 UPDOWN54.5%PUSH
13:35 → 13:40Nov 153.1853.176DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%WIN
13:30 → 13:35Nov 153.1913.185DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 153.1933.191DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.0%LOSS
13:20 → 13:25Nov 153.1793.193UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 153.1813.179DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.9%WIN
13:10 → 13:15Nov 153.1843.181DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%WIN
13:05 → 13:10Nov 153.1813.184UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.2%LOSS
13:00 → 13:05Nov 153.1913.181DOWN6 / 9 UPUP50.9%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on NEAR · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · NEAR 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.8%168 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent54.2%168 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent53.6%168 mkts
  4. 4RSI Divergence Agent50.0%168 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent50.6%168 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.6%168 mkts

About this market

NEAR Protocol · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology