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PROBORA

Market record

NEAR Up or Down · 5 Min

15:05 → 15:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled15:05 → 15:10 UTC

Market ID near-5m-20261115-1505

Settled

Nov 15, 15:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$3.111
Index at 15:05:00

Final index

$3.123

Settlement price

$3.123
Index at 15:10:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
3.1103.1143.1193.12315:0515:0615:0715:0815:10PTB 3.111

Settlement $3.123

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
UP51.2%Low
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.7%
191 markets
Model version
meta-near5-v1
published 15:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 15:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium50.3%191 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP52.8%
UP 52.8%47.2% DOWN
Medium50.8%191 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium50.8%191 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Medium50.3%191 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low53.4%191 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP57.2%
UP 57.2%42.8% DOWN
Medium49.2%191 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low46.1%191 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low52.9%191 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low52.9%191 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for NEAR: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 15:05:00 UTC

15:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps3.111ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps3.111ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−4.4 bps3.110ok
Median of 3 sources$3.111

Settlement · 15:10:00 UTC

15:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+4.8 bps3.125ok
  • Coinbase−0.8 bps3.123ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.123ok
Median of 3 sources$3.123

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min NEAR windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
15:00 → 15:05Nov 153.1223.111DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.0%WIN
14:55 → 15:00Nov 153.1293.122DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.2%WIN
14:50 → 14:55Nov 153.1253.129UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
14:45 → 14:50Nov 153.1143.125UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%LOSS
14:40 → 14:45Nov 153.1183.114DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP51.2%LOSS
14:35 → 14:40Nov 153.1263.118DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.7%LOSS
14:30 → 14:35Nov 153.1273.126DOWN5 / 9 UPUP52.2%LOSS
14:25 → 14:30Nov 153.1463.127DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.4%WIN
14:20 → 14:25Nov 153.1513.146DOWN5 / 9 UPUP60.6%LOSS
14:15 → 14:20Nov 153.1413.151UP7 / 9 UPUP51.2%WIN
14:10 → 14:15Nov 153.1343.141UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.0%WIN
14:05 → 14:10Nov 153.1343.134FLAT7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%PUSH

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on NEAR · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · NEAR 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.4%191 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent52.9%191 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent52.9%191 mkts
  4. 4RSI Divergence Agent50.3%191 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent50.8%191 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.8%191 mkts

About this market

NEAR Protocol · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology