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PROBORA

Market record

NEAR Up or Down · 5 Min

15:40 → 15:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled15:40 → 15:45 UTC

Market ID near-5m-20261115-1540

Settled

Nov 15, 15:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$3.134
Index at 15:40:00

Final index

$3.120

Settlement price

$3.120
Index at 15:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
3.1183.1233.12815:4015:4115:4215:4315:45PTB 3.134

Settlement $3.120

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN53.6%Low
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.7%
205 markets
Model version
meta-near5-v1
published 15:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 15:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium51.2%205 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium50.7%205 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium51.7%205 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium51.7%205 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Low53.2%205 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN56.1%
UP 43.9%56.1% DOWN
Medium50.2%205 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low46.3%205 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low52.7%205 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Low52.7%205 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for NEAR: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 15:40:00 UTC

15:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.6 bps3.135ok
  • Coinbase−1.1 bps3.134ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.134ok
Median of 3 sources$3.134

Settlement · 15:45:00 UTC

15:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+4.8 bps3.122ok
  • Coinbase−0.3 bps3.120ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.120ok
Median of 3 sources$3.120

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min NEAR windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
15:35 → 15:40Nov 153.1363.134DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
15:30 → 15:35Nov 153.1273.136UP5 / 9 DOWNUP50.8%WIN
15:25 → 15:30Nov 153.1353.127DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%WIN
15:20 → 15:25Nov 153.1423.135DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%WIN
15:15 → 15:20Nov 153.1313.142UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%LOSS
15:10 → 15:15Nov 153.1233.131UP5 / 9 DOWNUP50.6%WIN
15:05 → 15:10Nov 153.1113.123UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.2%WIN
15:00 → 15:05Nov 153.1223.111DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.0%WIN
14:55 → 15:00Nov 153.1293.122DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.2%WIN
14:50 → 14:55Nov 153.1253.129UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
14:45 → 14:50Nov 153.1143.125UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%LOSS
14:40 → 14:45Nov 153.1183.114DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP51.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on NEAR · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · NEAR 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.2%205 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent52.7%205 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent52.7%205 mkts
  4. 4RSI Divergence Agent51.7%205 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent51.7%205 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent50.2%205 mkts

About this market

NEAR Protocol · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology