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PROBORA

Market record

SOL Up or Down · 5 Min

10:10 → 10:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:10 → 10:15 UTC

Market ID sol-5m-20261115-1010

Settled

Nov 15, 10:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$72.20
Index at 10:10:00

Final index

$72.24

Settlement price

$72.24
Index at 10:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
72.1872.2272.2672.3010:1010:1110:1210:1310:15PTB 72.20

Settlement $72.24

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.1%Low
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.7%
153 markets
Model version
meta-sol5-v1
published 10:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 UP

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Medium47.4%154 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium48.1%154 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP51.1%
UP 51.1%48.9% DOWN
Medium50.6%154 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Medium48.7%154 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.7%
UP 51.7%48.3% DOWN
Low54.5%154 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium46.4%153 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low52.3%153 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low51.6%153 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low45.8%153 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for SOL: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:10:00 UTC

10:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.1 bps72.21ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps72.20ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.0 bps72.19ok
Median of 3 sources$72.20

Settlement · 10:15:00 UTC

10:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps72.24ok
  • Coinbase+0.3 bps72.24ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.7 bps72.23ok
Median of 3 sources$72.24

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min SOL windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1571.9572.20UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1571.6871.95UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1571.8571.68DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN55.3%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1571.7771.85UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.7%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1572.0071.77DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.1%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1571.9372.00UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1571.9071.93UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 1572.1371.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 1572.2272.00DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 1572.3872.22DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.5%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 1572.0772.38UP6 / 9 UPDOWN50.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on SOL · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · SOL 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.5%154 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent52.3%153 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent51.6%153 mkts
  4. 4Mean Reversion Agent50.6%154 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent48.7%154 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent47.4%154 mkts

About this market

Solana · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology