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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 15 Min

03:45 → 04:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:45 → 04:00 UTC

Market ID xrp-15m-20261115-0345

Settled

Nov 15, 04:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9672
Index at 03:45:00

Final index

$0.9666

Settlement price

$0.9666
Index at 04:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96210.96390.965803:4503:4803:5203:5604:00PTB 0.9672

Settlement $0.9666

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN55.3%Medium
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
16.7%
6 markets
Model version
meta-xrp15-v1
published 03:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium16.7%6 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium33.3%6 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium16.7%6 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Medium16.7%6 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.5%
UP 52.5%47.5% DOWN
Low50.0%6 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium16.7%6 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Low83.3%6 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low50.0%6 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low50.0%6 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9670ok
  • Coinbase+2.9 bps0.9675ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9672ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9672

Settlement · 04:00:00 UTC

04:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9666ok
  • Coinbase+3.6 bps0.9669ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9665ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9666

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:30 → 03:45Nov 150.96230.9672UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.9%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 150.96180.9623UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%LOSS
03:00 → 03:15Nov 150.95390.9618UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 150.95060.9539UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 150.94420.9506UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent83.3%6 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.0%6 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent50.0%6 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent50.0%6 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent33.3%6 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent16.7%6 mkts

About this market

XRP · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology