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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

04:35 → 04:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:35 → 04:40 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0435

Settled

Nov 15, 04:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9788
Index at 04:35:00

Final index

$0.9712

Settlement price

$0.9712
Index at 04:40:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.97020.97300.975704:3504:3604:3704:3804:40PTB 0.9788

Settlement $0.9712

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN58.2%High
UP 41.8%58.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
53.5%
43 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 04:35:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium48.8%43 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium51.2%43 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium48.8%43 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium51.2%43 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low39.5%43 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Medium48.8%43 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low62.8%43 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low37.2%43 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Low44.2%43 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:35:00 UTC

04:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9788ok
  • Coinbase+4.0 bps0.9792ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−4.6 bps0.9784ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9788

Settlement · 04:40:00 UTC

04:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9712ok
  • Coinbase+1.9 bps0.9714ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9712ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9712

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:30 → 04:35Nov 150.97550.9788UP6 / 9 DOWNUP53.9%WIN
04:25 → 04:30Nov 150.97180.9755UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 150.97100.9718UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 150.97200.9710DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.9%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 150.96530.9720UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.1%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 150.96610.9653DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 150.96660.9661DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.2%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 150.96310.9666UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 150.96290.9631UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
03:45 → 03:50Nov 150.96720.9629DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN58.8%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 150.96400.9672UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.3%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 150.96190.9640UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent62.8%43 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent51.2%43 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent48.8%43 mkts
  4. 4Meta Agent53.5%43 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent44.2%43 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent48.8%43 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology