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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

04:40 → 04:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:40 → 04:45 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0440

Settled

Nov 15, 04:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9712
Index at 04:40:00

Final index

$0.9732

Settlement price

$0.9732
Index at 04:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96920.97050.97180.973104:4004:4104:4204:4304:45PTB 0.9712

Settlement $0.9732

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN62.6%High
UP 37.4%62.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
52.3%
44 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 04:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.8%
UP 41.2%58.8% DOWN
Medium47.7%44 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%44 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium47.7%44 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.7%
UP 43.3%56.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%44 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low38.6%44 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN52.4%
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Medium47.7%44 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Low61.4%44 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low36.4%44 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low43.2%44 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:40:00 UTC

04:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9712ok
  • Coinbase+1.9 bps0.9714ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9712ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9712

Settlement · 04:45:00 UTC

04:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9732ok
  • Coinbase+1.3 bps0.9733ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9731ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9732

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:35 → 04:40Nov 150.97880.9712DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%WIN
04:30 → 04:35Nov 150.97550.9788UP6 / 9 DOWNUP53.9%WIN
04:25 → 04:30Nov 150.97180.9755UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 150.97100.9718UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 150.97200.9710DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.9%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 150.96530.9720UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.1%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 150.96610.9653DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 150.96660.9661DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.2%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 150.96310.9666UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 150.96290.9631UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
03:45 → 03:50Nov 150.96720.9629DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN58.8%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 150.96400.9672UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent61.4%44 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent50.0%44 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent47.7%44 mkts
  4. 4Meta Agent52.3%44 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent43.2%44 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent47.7%44 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology