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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

04:45 → 04:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:45 → 04:50 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0445

Settled

Nov 15, 04:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9732
Index at 04:45:00

Final index

$0.9772

Settlement price

$0.9772
Index at 04:50:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.97160.97370.97590.978004:4504:4604:4704:4804:50PTB 0.9732

Settlement $0.9772

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN56.8%Medium
UP 43.2%56.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
52.2%
46 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 04:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.5%
UP 45.5%54.5% DOWN
Medium45.7%46 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%46 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.5%
UP 47.5%52.5% DOWN
Medium47.8%46 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%46 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low41.3%46 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.7%
UP 45.3%54.7% DOWN
Medium47.8%46 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP51.3%
UP 51.3%48.7% DOWN
Low60.9%46 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low37.0%46 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low45.7%46 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:45:00 UTC

04:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9732ok
  • Coinbase+1.3 bps0.9733ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9731ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9732

Settlement · 04:50:00 UTC

04:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9771ok
  • Coinbase+1.9 bps0.9774ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9772ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9772

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:40 → 04:45Nov 150.97120.9732UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.6%LOSS
04:35 → 04:40Nov 150.97880.9712DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%WIN
04:30 → 04:35Nov 150.97550.9788UP6 / 9 DOWNUP53.9%WIN
04:25 → 04:30Nov 150.97180.9755UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 150.97100.9718UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 150.97200.9710DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.9%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 150.96530.9720UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.1%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 150.96610.9653DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 150.96660.9661DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.2%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 150.96310.9666UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 150.96290.9631UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
03:45 → 03:50Nov 150.96720.9629DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN58.8%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent60.9%46 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent50.0%46 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent45.7%46 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent47.8%46 mkts
  5. 5Meta Agent52.2%46 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent47.8%46 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology