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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

07:25 → 07:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled07:25 → 07:30 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0725

Settled

Nov 15, 07:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9556
Index at 07:25:00

Final index

$0.9542

Settlement price

$0.9542
Index at 07:30:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.95370.95430.955007:2507:2607:2707:2807:30PTB 0.9556

Settlement $0.9542

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN64.5%High
UP 35.5%64.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
52.0%
100 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 07:25:04 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 07:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.7%
UP 43.3%56.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%100 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN60.9%
UP 39.1%60.9% DOWN
Medium53.0%100 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.9%
UP 41.1%58.9% DOWN
Medium49.0%100 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium51.0%100 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Low48.0%100 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium53.0%100 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low54.0%100 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low43.0%100 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Low48.0%100 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 07:25:00 UTC

07:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9556ok
  • Coinbase+0.5 bps0.9557ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9556ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9556

Settlement · 07:30:00 UTC

07:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9542ok
  • Coinbase+1.6 bps0.9544ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9542ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9542

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
07:20 → 07:25Nov 150.95630.9556DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 150.95460.9563UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.8%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 150.95700.9546DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN54.9%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 150.95520.9570UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
07:00 → 07:05Nov 150.95830.9552DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%WIN
06:55 → 07:00Nov 150.95840.9583DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.2%WIN
06:50 → 06:55Nov 150.96380.9584DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%WIN
06:45 → 06:50Nov 150.96290.9638UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS
06:40 → 06:45Nov 150.96050.9629UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS
06:35 → 06:40Nov 150.95850.9605UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.8%LOSS
06:30 → 06:35Nov 150.95940.9585DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%WIN
06:25 → 06:30Nov 150.95630.9594UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent54.0%100 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent53.0%100 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent53.0%100 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent48.0%100 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent48.0%100 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent49.0%100 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology