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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 15 Min

03:00 → 03:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:00 → 03:15 UTC

Market ID btc-15m-20261115-0300

Settled

Nov 15, 03:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,873.66
Index at 03:00:00

Final index

$65,162.06

Settlement price

$65,162.06
Index at 03:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,078.3265,293.8165,509.2903:0003:0303:0703:1103:15PTB 64,873.66

Settlement $65,162.06

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN66.6%High
UP 33.4%66.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
0.0%
3 markets
Model version
meta-btc15-v1
published 03:00:09 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN61.1%
UP 38.9%61.1% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN56.5%
UP 43.5%56.5% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.6%
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Low33.3%3 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.1%
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low100.0%3 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low0.0%3 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Low100.0%3 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:00:00 UTC

03:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps64,877.16ok
  • Coinbase−1.7 bps64,862.78ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,873.66ok
Median of 3 sources$64,873.66

Settlement · 03:15:00 UTC

03:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps65,164.07ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,162.06ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.2 bps65,160.58ok
Median of 3 sources$65,162.06

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1564,791.9064,873.66UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1564,452.1764,791.90UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent100.0%3 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent100.0%3 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent33.3%3 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent0.0%3 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent0.0%3 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent0.0%3 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology