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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 15 Min

03:15 → 03:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Live03:15 → 03:30 UTC

Market ID btc-15m-20261115-0315

Settles in

04:58

Price to beat

$65,162.06
Index at 03:15:00

Current index

$65,029.56
−132.50(-0.203%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 03:30:00
65,038.6065,118.6865,198.7565,278.8303:1503:1803:2203:2603:30PTB 65,162.06
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
DOWN63.9%High
UP 36.1%63.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
0.0%
3 markets
Model version
meta-btc15-v1
published 03:15:05 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentDOWN58.7%
UP 41.3%58.7% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 markets
Momentum AgentDOWN54.9%
UP 45.1%54.9% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 markets
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.6%
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 markets
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.5%
UP 43.5%56.5% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 markets
Order Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low33.3%3 markets
Volatility AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 markets
Liquidation AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low100.0%3 markets
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low0.0%3 markets
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Low100.0%3 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:15:00 UTC

03:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps65,164.07ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.2 bps65,160.58ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,162.06ok
Median of 3 sources$65,162.06

Current index

03:25:01 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.3 bps65,038.25ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,029.56ok
  • Coinbase−0.2 bps65,028.24ok
Median of 3 sources$65,029.56

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:00 → 03:15Nov 1564,873.6665,162.06UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1564,791.9064,873.66UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1564,452.1764,791.90UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent100.0%3 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent100.0%3 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent33.3%3 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent0.0%3 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent0.0%3 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent0.0%3 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology