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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 15 Min

03:30 → 03:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Live03:30 → 03:45 UTC

Market ID btc-15m-20261115-0330

Settles in

06:54

Price to beat

$64,963.90
Index at 03:30:00

Current index

$65,055.78
+91.88(0.141%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 03:45:00
64,773.3364,876.2165,081.9603:3003:3303:3703:4103:45PTB 64,963.90
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
DOWN56.4%Medium
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
25.0%
4 markets
Model version
meta-btc15-v1
published 03:30:05 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentDOWN59.7%
UP 40.3%59.7% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 markets
Momentum AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 markets
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 markets
RSI Divergence AgentUP51.2%
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 markets
Order Flow AgentUP53.1%
UP 53.1%46.9% DOWN
Low25.0%4 markets
Volatility AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 markets
Liquidation AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low75.0%4 markets
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low25.0%4 markets
Whale Flow AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low100.0%4 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:30:00 UTC

03:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps64,967.42ok
  • Coinbase−1.1 bps64,956.90ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,963.90ok
Median of 3 sources$64,963.90

Current index

03:38:03 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−3.4 bps65,033.75ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.6 bps65,059.39ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,055.78ok
Median of 3 sources$65,055.78

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:15 → 03:30Nov 1565,162.0664,963.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.9%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 1564,873.6665,162.06UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1564,791.9064,873.66UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1564,452.1764,791.90UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent75.0%4 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent100.0%4 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent25.0%4 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent25.0%4 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent25.0%4 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent25.0%4 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology