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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 15 Min

03:45 → 04:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Live03:45 → 04:00 UTC

Market ID btc-15m-20261115-0345

Settles in

09:46

Price to beat

$65,122.67
Index at 03:45:00

Current index

$64,799.30
−323.37(-0.497%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 04:00:00
64,799.5464,904.9365,010.3103:4503:4803:5203:5604:00PTB 65,122.67
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
DOWN72.0%High
UP 28.0%72.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
20.0%
5 markets
Model version
meta-btc15-v1
published 03:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentDOWN61.6%
UP 38.4%61.6% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 markets
Momentum AgentDOWN61.2%
UP 38.8%61.2% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 markets
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 markets
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN58.1%
UP 41.9%58.1% DOWN
Medium40.0%5 markets
Order Flow AgentUP51.7%
UP 51.7%48.3% DOWN
Low40.0%5 markets
Volatility AgentDOWN58.4%
UP 41.6%58.4% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 markets
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Low80.0%5 markets
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low20.0%5 markets
Whale Flow AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low100.0%5 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,122.67ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.7 bps65,117.91ok
  • Coinbase+1.0 bps65,129.06ok
Median of 3 sources$65,122.67

Current index

03:50:11 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,799.30ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.6 bps64,795.70ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps64,799.80ok
Median of 3 sources$64,799.30

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:30 → 03:45Nov 1564,963.9065,122.67UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 1565,162.0664,963.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.9%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 1564,873.6665,162.06UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1564,791.9064,873.66UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1564,452.1764,791.90UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Whale Flow Agent100.0%5 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent80.0%5 mkts
  3. 3RSI Divergence Agent40.0%5 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent40.0%5 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent20.0%5 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent20.0%5 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology