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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 15 Min

04:00 → 04:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Upcoming04:00 → 04:15 UTC

Market ID btc-15m-20261115-0400

Opens in

01:43

Price to beat

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Index at 04:00:00

Current index

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Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 04:15:00
04:0004:0304:0704:1104:15The chart starts when the window opens.
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists

Publishes when the window opens.

Base consensus

Publishes when the window opens.

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Previous window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentPublishes when the window opens.
Momentum AgentPublishes when the window opens.
Mean Reversion AgentPublishes when the window opens.
RSI Divergence AgentPublishes when the window opens.
Order Flow AgentPublishes when the window opens.
Volatility AgentPublishes when the window opens.
Liquidation AgentPublishes when the window opens.
OI/Funding AgentPublishes when the window opens.
Whale Flow AgentPublishes when the window opens.

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:00:00 UTC

Fixed when the window opens.

Current index

Available when the window opens.

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:30 → 03:45Nov 1564,963.9065,122.67UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 1565,162.0664,963.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.9%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 1564,873.6665,162.06UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1564,791.9064,873.66UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1564,452.1764,791.90UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Whale Flow Agent100.0%5 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent80.0%5 mkts
  3. 3RSI Divergence Agent40.0%5 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent40.0%5 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent20.0%5 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent20.0%5 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology