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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

14:20 → 14:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:20 → 14:25 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1420

Settled

Nov 15, 14:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,342.35
Index at 14:20:00

Final index

$65,284.52

Settlement price

$65,284.52
Index at 14:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,286.7665,312.4265,363.7514:2014:2114:2214:2314:25PTB 65,342.35

Settlement $65,284.52

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN60.4%High
UP 39.6%60.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.0%
248 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 14:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium48.8%248 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN60.9%
UP 39.1%60.9% DOWN
Medium54.0%248 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium47.6%248 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.9%
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Medium50.0%248 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium52.8%248 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP58.1%
UP 58.1%41.9% DOWN
Medium46.4%248 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Low50.8%248 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.4%248 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low46.4%248 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:20:00 UTC

14:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.4 bps65,344.67ok
  • Coinbase−0.4 bps65,339.42ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,342.35ok
Median of 3 sources$65,342.35

Settlement · 14:25:00 UTC

14:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,284.52ok
  • Coinbase−1.4 bps65,275.66ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.1 bps65,284.88ok
Median of 3 sources$65,284.52

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
14:15 → 14:20Nov 1565,269.3965,342.35UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
14:10 → 14:15Nov 1565,159.1265,269.39UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.8%WIN
14:05 → 14:10Nov 1565,239.4165,159.12DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%WIN
14:00 → 14:05Nov 1565,403.5565,239.41DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%WIN
13:55 → 14:00Nov 1565,466.9665,403.55DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 1565,492.5565,466.96DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%WIN
13:45 → 13:50Nov 1565,466.6765,492.55UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.0%LOSS
13:40 → 13:45Nov 1565,334.8765,466.67UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 1565,459.4065,334.87DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.2%WIN
13:30 → 13:35Nov 1565,527.9065,459.40DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 1565,645.2565,527.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
13:20 → 13:25Nov 1565,585.7265,645.25UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.8%248 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.4%248 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.8%248 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.0%248 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.0%248 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent46.4%248 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology