Skip to content
PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 15 Min

03:30 → 03:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:30 → 03:45 UTC

Market ID eth-15m-20261115-0330

Settled

Nov 15, 03:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,819.85
Index at 03:30:00

Final index

$1,824.95

Settlement price

$1,824.95
Index at 03:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,812.551,816.531,824.5003:3003:3303:3703:4103:45PTB 1,819.85

Settlement $1,824.95

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.4%Medium
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
20.0%
5 markets
Model version
meta-eth15-v1
published 03:30:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 UP

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Previous windowNext window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP51.3%
UP 51.3%48.7% DOWN
Medium60.0%5 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Medium40.0%5 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Medium40.0%5 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low40.0%5 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Medium80.0%5 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low80.0%5 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low80.0%5 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low60.0%5 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:30:00 UTC

03:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.2 bps1,819.81ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps1,820.00ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,819.85ok
Median of 3 sources$1,819.85

Settlement · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,824.86ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,824.95ok
  • Coinbase+1.9 bps1,825.30ok
Median of 3 sources$1,824.95

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:15 → 03:30Nov 151,822.181,819.85DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 151,815.031,822.18UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 151,810.471,815.03UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 151,802.861,810.47UP6 / 9 UPDOWN61.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent80.0%5 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent80.0%5 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent80.0%5 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent60.0%5 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent60.0%5 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent40.0%5 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology