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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 15 Min

03:45 → 04:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:45 → 04:00 UTC

Market ID eth-15m-20261115-0345

Settled

Nov 15, 04:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,824.95
Index at 03:45:00

Final index

$1,817.76

Settlement price

$1,817.76
Index at 04:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,816.061,819.081,822.1103:4503:4803:5203:5604:00PTB 1,824.95

Settlement $1,817.76

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.0%Medium
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
33.3%
6 markets
Model version
meta-eth15-v1
published 03:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Medium16.7%6 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Medium50.0%6 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.4%
UP 42.6%57.4% DOWN
Medium50.0%6 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium50.0%6 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%6 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium83.3%6 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.3%
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Low83.3%6 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low66.7%6 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low66.7%6 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,824.86ok
  • Coinbase+1.9 bps1,825.30ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,824.95ok
Median of 3 sources$1,824.95

Settlement · 04:00:00 UTC

04:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.2 bps1,817.73ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,817.76ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.6 bps1,817.87ok
Median of 3 sources$1,817.76

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:30 → 03:45Nov 151,819.851,824.95UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.4%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 151,822.181,819.85DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 151,815.031,822.18UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 151,810.471,815.03UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 151,802.861,810.47UP6 / 9 UPDOWN61.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Volatility Agent83.3%6 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent83.3%6 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent66.7%6 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent66.7%6 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent50.0%6 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent50.0%6 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology