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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 15 Min

04:00 → 04:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:00 → 04:15 UTC

Market ID eth-15m-20261115-0400

Settled

Nov 15, 04:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,817.76
Index at 04:00:00

Final index

$1,819.79

Settlement price

$1,819.79
Index at 04:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,812.141,814.821,820.1904:0004:0304:0704:1104:15PTB 1,817.76

Settlement $1,819.79

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN56.1%Medium
UP 43.9%56.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
28.6%
7 markets
Model version
meta-eth15-v1
published 04:00:11 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.3%
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Medium57.1%7 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium42.9%7 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Medium57.1%7 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low42.9%7 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Medium71.4%7 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.3%
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Low71.4%7 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low57.1%7 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Low57.1%7 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:00:00 UTC

04:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.2 bps1,817.73ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,817.76ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.6 bps1,817.87ok
Median of 3 sources$1,817.76

Settlement · 04:15:00 UTC

04:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,819.70ok
  • Coinbase+0.4 bps1,819.86ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,819.79ok
Median of 3 sources$1,819.79

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:45 → 04:00Nov 151,824.951,817.76DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
03:30 → 03:45Nov 151,819.851,824.95UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.4%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 151,822.181,819.85DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 151,815.031,822.18UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 151,810.471,815.03UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 151,802.861,810.47UP6 / 9 UPDOWN61.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent71.4%7 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent71.4%7 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent57.1%7 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent57.1%7 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent57.1%7 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent57.1%7 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology