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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

06:15 → 06:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled06:15 → 06:20 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0615

Settled

Nov 15, 06:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,787.35
Index at 06:15:00

Final index

$1,794.16

Settlement price

$1,794.16
Index at 06:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,789.991,793.181,796.3806:1506:1606:1706:1806:20PTB 1,787.35

Settlement $1,794.16

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
UP52.7%Low
UP 52.7%47.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.7%
75 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 06:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium57.3%75 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP56.5%
UP 56.5%43.5% DOWN
Medium57.3%75 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP52.0%
UP 52.0%48.0% DOWN
Medium53.3%75 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP52.8%
UP 52.8%47.2% DOWN
Medium53.3%75 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Low54.7%75 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium50.7%75 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low57.3%75 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low56.0%75 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low56.0%75 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:15:00 UTC

06:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.1 bps1,787.15ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.5 bps1,787.43ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,787.35ok
Median of 3 sources$1,787.35

Settlement · 06:20:00 UTC

06:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,794.16ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps1,794.12ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps1,794.31ok
Median of 3 sources$1,794.16

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
06:10 → 06:15Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
06:05 → 06:10Nov 151,790.34—VOID6 / 9 UPUP54.6%VOID
06:00 → 06:05Nov 151,799.001,790.34DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.7%LOSS
05:55 → 06:00Nov 151,803.991,799.00DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 151,805.431,803.99DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 151,806.311,805.43DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.0%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 151,805.001,806.31UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%LOSS
05:35 → 05:40Nov 151,805.951,805.00DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%WIN
05:30 → 05:35Nov 151,807.731,805.95DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 151,809.941,807.73DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.0%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 151,810.841,809.94DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.5%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 151,809.941,810.84UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent57.3%75 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent54.7%75 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent57.3%75 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent56.0%75 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent57.3%75 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent53.3%75 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology