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PROBORA

Market record

NEAR Up or Down · 5 Min

08:10 → 08:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:10 → 08:15 UTC

Market ID near-5m-20261115-0810

Settled

Nov 15, 08:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$3.118
Index at 08:10:00

Final index

$3.099

Settlement price

$3.099
Index at 08:15:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
3.1003.1073.1133.12008:1008:1108:1208:1308:15PTB 3.118

Settlement $3.099

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN53.4%High
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.1%
54 markets
Model version
meta-near5-v1
published 08:10:05 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Medium40.7%54 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium57.4%54 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Medium37.0%54 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium50.0%54 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Low57.4%54 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Medium44.4%54 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.1%54 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low51.9%54 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low46.3%54 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for NEAR: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:10:00 UTC

08:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.7 bps3.118ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps3.118ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.9 bps3.118ok
Median of 3 sources$3.118

Settlement · 08:15:00 UTC

08:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.099ok
  • Coinbase−1.3 bps3.099ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.6 bps3.100ok
Median of 3 sources$3.099

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min NEAR windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:05 → 08:10Nov 153.1163.118UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 153.1173.116DOWN6 / 9 UPUP51.1%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 153.1173.117FLAT7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%PUSH
07:50 → 07:55Nov 153.1133.117UP5 / 9 UPUP57.1%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 153.1133.113FLAT7 / 9 UPUP60.7%PUSH
07:40 → 07:45Nov 153.1303.113DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 153.1293.130UP6 / 9 UPUP55.7%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 153.1383.129DOWN7 / 9 UPUP56.3%LOSS
07:25 → 07:30Nov 153.1383.138FLAT7 / 9 DOWNUP50.0%PUSH
07:20 → 07:25Nov 153.1323.138UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS
07:15 → 07:20Nov 153.1303.132UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 153.1423.130DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.3%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on NEAR · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · NEAR 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent57.4%54 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent57.4%54 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent51.9%54 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent48.1%54 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent46.3%54 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.0%54 mkts

About this market

NEAR Protocol · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology