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PROBORA

Market record

SOL Up or Down · 5 Min

04:15 → 04:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:15 → 04:20 UTC

Market ID sol-5m-20261115-0415

Settled

Nov 15, 04:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$71.41
Index at 04:15:00

Final index

$71.34

Settlement price

$71.34
Index at 04:20:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
71.3371.3971.4671.5204:1504:1604:1704:1804:20PTB 71.41

Settlement $71.34

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN55.8%High
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.7%
39 markets
Model version
meta-sol5-v1
published 04:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Medium47.5%40 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Medium47.5%40 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium50.0%40 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium45.0%40 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low62.5%40 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium61.5%39 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low66.7%39 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Low51.3%39 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low48.7%39 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for SOL: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:15:00 UTC

04:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.7 bps71.41ok
  • Coinbase−1.2 bps71.40ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps71.41ok
Median of 3 sources$71.41

Settlement · 04:20:00 UTC

04:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−2.1 bps71.32ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps71.34ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps71.34ok
Median of 3 sources$71.34

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min SOL windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:10 → 04:15Nov 1571.0471.41UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.6%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 1571.1571.04DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1571.3271.15DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1571.1671.32UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 1571.3971.16DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 1571.7471.39DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.7%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1571.5771.74UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1571.3471.57UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1571.3871.34DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.1%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 1571.6671.38DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.9%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 1571.9071.66DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN50.9%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 1571.7471.90UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on SOL · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · SOL 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent66.7%39 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent62.5%40 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent61.5%39 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent51.3%39 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent50.0%40 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent48.7%39 mkts

About this market

Solana · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology