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PROBORA

Market record

SOL Up or Down · 5 Min

05:15 → 05:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled05:15 → 05:20 UTC

Market ID sol-5m-20261115-0515

Settled

Nov 15, 05:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$70.84
Index at 05:15:00

Final index

$71.16

Settlement price

$71.16
Index at 05:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
70.9671.0771.1805:1505:1605:1705:1805:20PTB 70.84

Settlement $71.16

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN56.8%Medium
UP 43.2%56.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
55.7%
61 markets
Model version
meta-sol5-v1
published 05:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 05:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.9%
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Medium51.6%62 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN59.2%
UP 40.8%59.2% DOWN
Medium54.8%62 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.1%
UP 45.9%54.1% DOWN
Medium56.5%62 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.1%
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Medium51.6%62 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.5%
UP 47.5%52.5% DOWN
Low58.1%62 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Medium55.7%61 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low60.7%61 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Low55.7%61 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Low52.5%61 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for SOL: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 05:15:00 UTC

05:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps70.84ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.7 bps70.83ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps70.84ok
Median of 3 sources$70.84

Settlement · 05:20:00 UTC

05:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps71.16ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.0 bps71.17ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps71.16ok
Median of 3 sources$71.16

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min SOL windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:10 → 05:15Nov 1570.7770.84UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.3%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 1570.8470.77DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.9%WIN
05:00 → 05:05Nov 1570.8770.84DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%WIN
04:55 → 05:00Nov 1571.1170.87DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.8%WIN
04:50 → 04:55Nov 1571.1271.11DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
04:45 → 04:50Nov 1571.0171.12UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.3%LOSS
04:40 → 04:45Nov 1571.0171.01FLAT6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.1%PUSH
04:35 → 04:40Nov 1571.5571.01DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.3%WIN
04:30 → 04:35Nov 1571.4271.55UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
04:25 → 04:30Nov 1571.2671.42UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.4%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 1571.3471.26DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
04:15 → 04:20Nov 1571.4171.34DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.8%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on SOL · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · SOL 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent60.7%61 mkts
  2. 2Mean Reversion Agent56.5%62 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent58.1%62 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.8%62 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent52.5%61 mkts
  6. 6OI/Funding Agent55.7%61 mkts

About this market

Solana · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology