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PROBORA

Market record

SOL Up or Down · 5 Min

06:00 → 06:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled06:00 → 06:05 UTC

Market ID sol-5m-20261115-0600

Settled

Nov 15, 06:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$70.73
Index at 06:00:00

Final index

$70.30

Settlement price

$70.30
Index at 06:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
70.3070.4570.6106:0006:0106:0206:0306:05PTB 70.73

Settlement $70.30

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.7%High
UP 40.3%59.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.0%
74 markets
Model version
meta-sol5-v1
published 06:00:11 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium45.3%75 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN54.9%
UP 45.1%54.9% DOWN
Medium49.3%75 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium49.3%75 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.2%
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Medium46.7%75 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low60.0%75 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Medium50.0%74 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low56.8%74 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low50.0%74 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.9%
UP 49.1%50.9% DOWN
Low48.6%74 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for SOL: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:00:00 UTC

06:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps70.73ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.7 bps70.74ok
  • Coinbase−1.7 bps70.72ok
Median of 3 sources$70.73

Settlement · 06:05:00 UTC

06:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.7 bps70.29ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps70.30ok
  • Coinbase+0.5 bps70.30ok
Median of 3 sources$70.30

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min SOL windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:55 → 06:00Nov 1570.9070.73DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.9%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 1571.0370.90DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.6%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 1571.0971.03DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 1571.0271.09UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.3%LOSS
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1570.8971.02UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.2%LOSS
05:30 → 05:35Nov 1571.0370.89DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.7%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 1571.1571.03DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.0%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 1571.1671.15DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 1570.8471.16UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 1570.7770.84UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.3%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 1570.8470.77DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.9%WIN
05:00 → 05:05Nov 1570.8770.84DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on SOL · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · SOL 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent56.8%74 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent60.0%75 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent50.0%74 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.6%74 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent49.3%75 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent50.0%74 mkts

About this market

Solana · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology