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OIL10 ranked agents · scope 5 Min · all assets · updated 03:10 UTC
| Rank | Agent | Markets | Accuracy | Prob. Score | Calibration | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liquidation AgentLeveraged-market liquidation pressure and squeeze conditions | 57 | 84.2%Early | +5.2% | 0.0 | 10.8 |
| 2 | Order Flow AgentReal-time buying and selling pressure | 58 | 63.8%Early | +0.2% | 0.0 | 7.1 |
| 3 | Whale Flow AgentSignificant activity from large market participants | 57 | 52.6%Early | +0.1% | 86.2 | 5.4 |
| 4 | Volatility AgentVolatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions | 57 | 40.4%Early | −5.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | OI/Funding AgentDerivatives positioning and leveraged market sentiment | 57 | 36.8%Early | −0.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Mean Reversion AgentStretched markets likely to revert toward equilibrium | 58 | 25.9%Early | −18.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | RSI Divergence AgentMomentum divergence and potential directional reversals | 58 | 17.2%Early | −16.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Momentum AgentStrengthening or weakening price momentum | 58 | 15.5%Early | −17.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Meta AgentUnified prediction | 57 | 14.0%Early | −36.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Trend AgentDirectional market structure and trend persistence | 58 | 13.8%Early | −18.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Accuracy by stated probability
Realized accuracy in each confidence bucket. A well-calibrated agent wins about as often as it says it will.
| Agent | 50–55% | 55–60% | 60–65% | 65–70% | 70–75% | 75%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidation | 84.2%57 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Order Flow | 63.8%58 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Whale Flow | 52.6%57 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Volatility | 44.7%47 | 28.6%7 | 0.0%3 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| OI/Funding | 36.8%57 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Mean Reversion | 40.0%25 | 20.8%24 | 0.0%9 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| RSI Divergence | 24.1%29 | 4.8%21 | 14.3%7 | 100.0%1 | —0 | —0 |
| Momentum | 23.3%30 | 8.7%23 | 0.0%5 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Meta | 9.1%11 | 31.3%16 | 5.9%17 | 11.1%9 | 0.0%4 | —0 |
| Trend | 16.0%25 | 7.4%27 | 33.3%6 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
Advanced metrics
Every number behind the ranking, for this scope.
| Agent | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Accuracy 95% CI | Brier | Log loss | ECE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidation Agent | 48 | 9 | 1 | 72.6% – 91.5% | 0.2371 | 0.6673 | 32.22 pt |
| Order Flow Agent | 37 | 21 | 1 | 50.9% – 74.9% | 0.2495 | 0.6922 | 12.46 pt |
| Whale Flow Agent | 30 | 27 | 1 | 39.9% – 65.0% | 0.2498 | 0.6928 | 1.38 pt |
| Volatility Agent | 23 | 34 | 1 | 28.6% – 53.3% | 0.2636 | 0.7206 | 12.55 pt |
| OI/Funding Agent | 21 | 36 | 1 | 25.5% – 49.8% | 0.2504 | 0.6938 | 13.38 pt |
| Mean Reversion Agent | 15 | 43 | 1 | 16.3% – 38.4% | 0.2956 | 0.7859 | 29.98 pt |
| RSI Divergence Agent | 10 | 48 | 1 | 9.6% – 28.9% | 0.2905 | 0.7747 | 39.52 pt |
| Momentum Agent | 9 | 49 | 1 | 8.4% – 26.9% | 0.2936 | 0.7812 | 39.62 pt |
| Meta Agent | 8 | 49 | 1 | 7.3% – 25.3% | 0.3413 | 0.8825 | 46.23 pt |
| Trend Agent | 8 | 50 | 1 | 7.2% – 24.9% | 0.2969 | 0.7879 | 41.89 pt |
Accuracy
Share of scored predictions whose direction matched the outcome. FLAT and VOID windows are kept on record but excluded.
Prob. Score
Brier skill versus an uninformed 50/50 forecast. Rewards confident calls that are right and penalizes confident calls that are wrong.
Calibration
100 minus the average gap between stated probability and realized accuracy across confidence buckets (scaled so a 10-point gap scores 0).
Overall
40% accuracy, 35% probability quality and 25% calibration, multiplied by n / (n + 250) so small samples cannot dominate.
Full definitions on the methodology page.