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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:55 → 05:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:55 → 05:00 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-0455

Settled

Nov 15, 05:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05862
Index at 04:55:00

Final index

$0.05841

Settlement price

$0.05841
Index at 05:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.058420.058490.0585504:5504:5604:5704:5805:00PTB 0.05862

Settlement $0.05841

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.1%High
UP 40.9%59.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
54.2%
48 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 04:55:03 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.0%
UP 44.0%56.0% DOWN
Medium47.9%48 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Medium56.3%48 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.5%
UP 45.5%54.5% DOWN
Medium62.5%48 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Medium52.1%48 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.5%
UP 52.5%47.5% DOWN
Low45.8%48 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN57.6%
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%48 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low52.1%48 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low54.2%48 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low43.8%48 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:55:00 UTC

04:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.9 bps0.05863ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05862ok
  • Coinbase−0.2 bps0.05862ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05862

Settlement · 05:00:00 UTC

05:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.9 bps0.05841ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05841ok
  • Coinbase+4.8 bps0.05844ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05841

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:50 → 04:55Nov 150.058620.05862FLAT5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%PUSH
04:45 → 04:50Nov 150.058520.05862UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.3%LOSS
04:40 → 04:45Nov 150.058580.05852DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.4%WIN
04:35 → 04:40Nov 150.058980.05858DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.3%WIN
04:30 → 04:35Nov 150.058890.05898UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.6%LOSS
04:25 → 04:30Nov 150.058740.05889UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 150.058730.05874UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 150.058850.05873DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 150.058610.05885UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 150.058640.05861DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.3%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 150.058820.05864DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 150.058710.05882UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent56.3%48 mkts
  2. 2Mean Reversion Agent62.5%48 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent52.1%48 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent54.2%48 mkts
  5. 5Meta Agent54.2%48 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent45.8%48 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology